[Updates at the end of this post.]
As I write this at about 1:30 AM eastern time, the outer edges of Hurricane Katrina have just started to touch Louisiana and New Orleans. Nobody yet knows how it will turn out.
Katrina is a full-fledged Category Five hurricane with constant winds of 150-175 miles per hour, and gusting up to 200 mph. If that isn't bad enough, 20 to 25 feet of flooding is expected. That much water will basically destroy all buildings up to the third floor. The NOAA had an extremely sobering description of the anticipated damage up for a while (original seems to be gone, this via Atrios):
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.
Most of the area has been evacuated, but about a hundred thousand people who don't own a car have been relocated to the Superdome and other shelters. It's unknown whether the Superdome can withstand that kind of wind and flooding if it gets hit full on -- there's a very frightening possibility that it might become a death trap.
The brand-new (literally, it's nine days old) the Weather Channel blog has some excellent commentary from the meteorologists themselves, and so far at least I find it a lot more informal and interesting than watching TV. This personal note from Lucas about his father and grandmother reminds us how many, many people are affected by this storm across the country. If they can keep the blog updated through the day tomorrow then it should be a very good source of information. Highly recommended. (Update: Not much going on there now that Katrina has made landfall -- probably too busy today. Weather Underground has some slightly better info at the link below.)
Please, pray for everyone in the area. If you want to take action, please, give money to the Red Cross. A cash donation is infinitely better than a donation of goods -- especially for an emergency like this. They buy in bulk direct from the appropriate distributor (often at cost) and deliver it right where it's needed.
Update: More blogging sources: Mark Kraft is collecting eyewitness reports of people who didn't evacuate. Sounds like some people are going to be blogging til the power goes out. Teece has more, and ends on the disturbing comment "I would have liked to have seen New Orleans." The eye is now visible on long-range radar, at least until the radar is destroyed by the storm. The Weather Underground blogs are also good sources.
Here's that Red Cross link again: Please donate.
Update (11am ET): More blogs describing it as it happens:
- Times-Picayune reporters sheltering inside the TP building. Some of the reports are chilling.
- Sun Herald reporters.
- Metroblogging New Orleans
- The Irish Trojan
- And there's even a Flickr group with pictures.
Pieces of the Superdome's roof are peeling away, but so far it appears to be just the foamy membrane and not the structural steel. (Update 11:40am ET: AP is reporting that a few chunks of metal have come off leaving the interior exposed to the sky, but they are relatively small. (20' x 5', which is small compared to the size of the dome.) [12:30pm ET: NOLA now has pictures of the roof]. Originally I heard 100,000 souls there, but now the numbers being reported are more like 9,000 or 10,000 (or 26,000, or ... you name it). Why? Part of that may be because they were running security and bag checks at the door (oh my God, have we progressed to this?) and there was still a huge line outside as the winds started to get really, really bad.
Here's that Red Cross link again: Please donate.
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